With a month of November which should end with a profit of approx. +2.2°C relative to the 1991-2020 normal, the fall forecast for 2022 would show a temperature exceedance of +2.1°C, on par with fall 2006 and straight ahead. of autumn 2014 (+2°C). However, we have to wait until December 1st to confirm 1st or 2nd place in our autumn 2022 podium, because the ranking of the leading trio is very tight…
Credit: The Weather Channel
A summer 2022 that extends to the end of October…
With the exception of a cooler period in the second half of September, temperatures will have been too high this meteorological autumn. It is the month of October that pulls autumn 2022 to the top of the ranking, as it clearly tops the warmest October months with an excess of +3.5°C. In the city of Clermont-Ferrand, the deviation from normal even reached +5.4°C due to repeated southerly flows, leading to foehn effects with significant warming of the air mass descending from the Massif-Central.
Credit: The Weather Channel
An episode of unusually late heat takes place in the second half of October with temperatures above 30°C (very high heat) observed in the southwest and in Corsica. On October 28, the national thermal indicator shows an excess of +7.3°C! Many heat records have been broken for the last ten days of October with 27°C in Colmar, 27.2°C in Angers, 28.7°C in Clermont-Ferrand and up to 31.8°C in Colmar on the 28th and 29th .October.
During the first half of November, mildness remains notable with a peak of mildness between November 11th and 13th. In the west and south-west, such high temperatures had never been measured at this time of the year: 24.8°C in Albi, 22.8°C in Agen, 21.8°C in Saintes and 20.7°C in Nantes. At Cap de la Hague it’s even a monthly mild record, dropping 19.6°C on the 13th, the old record dates back to 3 November 1994 with 18.5°C.
A virtual absence of frost in autumn 2022
While most regions in France observe their first sheltered frost between mid-October and mid-November, the vast majority of cities in France will not have observed the slightest sheltered frost in autumn 2022. A few exceptions apply the same for traditionally coldest places: 3 days of frost in Charleville-Mézières in the Ardennes, 2 days of frost in Romorantin in Sologne, 1 day of frost in Valenciennes and Mont-de-Marsan.
2022 will be the warmest year on record since 1900
It is now certain that the year 2022 will be the hottest year ever recorded since 1900. Until now, the 1st place went to the year 2020, but with an average temperature of 15.1°C out of the first 11 months of the year. We are therefore well above the year 2020 (14.7°C). Looking closely at the weather trend for the next few weeks, there is no severe cold spell in sight in France, although temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal for the first few days of December. It would take a December of 5°C below normal for 2022 not to be the warmest year. In other words, it’s mission impossible…